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2018 Subjective Estimate

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The 2018 subjective estimate was released yesterday. A couple weeks ago Terra Nova Trading guessed 2.5 billion pounds for the 2018 crop.  The Subjective Estimate is done by the National Agricultural Statistical Service and is a grower poll.  The Subjective Estimate is a bullish 2.3 billion pounds. And then you could click on the link below that written by RPAC discussing some of the historical differences between the estimates vs. actual crop sizes.  Lets not panic over the possibility of a 2.5 billion pound crop this year. Almonds are doing well throughout the world and previous to the frost event during bloom most packers were hoping for a 2.5 billion pound crop.

Subjective-2018

2018 Subjective RPAC

 

 

TERRA NOVA 2018 ESTIMATE

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Terra Nova Trading is a large global trader and is heavily involved in moving California Almonds.  Each year they set out to give the world and themselves an early estimate of what size the crop might be.  This year they used 1.1 million acres of bearing almonds in California up 100,000 acres from last year.  This number is bound to be somewhat controversial as they don’t mention the acreage removed. I believe most that I have spoken with were expecting about 40,000 less acres.   None the less when they speak the world listens. Reading through their estimate it was difficult for them to find the holes in the crop that have been wildly talked about since the frost events during bloom. They are reporting that 2018 crop should be around 2.5 billion pounds.

Please click link to read full report….

2018 Terra Nova Estimate

March Shipments…

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March shipment numbers were released last week and once again California set a record. This is six straight months of record shipments for our industry.  The 2017 crop receipts are now 2.256 billion pounds(2.211 billion pounds marketable).  This is 5.9% ahead of the 2016 crop.  To date total shipments are 11.69% ahead of 2016 crop. The uncommitted inventory is -10% of what the 2016 uncommitted inventory was at this point last year.  China to date has imported 22% more California Almonds.  We will see if and how much the new tariffs slow this down over the next couple of months.  Pricing remains fairly stable, though California is still VERY unclear of what to expect from this 2018 crop. Link to full report is right here…..

Position Report 2018-03

 

March Position Report

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Once again Almond shipments for the previous month were spectacular.  During the month of February as an industry we shipped 190 million pounds vs. 152 million the previous February. Uncommitted  inventory currently stands at 657 million pounds vs. 743 million pounds at this point last year. Please click the link and read the commentary below from RPAC for a better understanding of where we are.

Almond Market Review-March RPAC

Here is the official Almond Board Position report for the month ending February…..

Position-Report-2018-02

Frost Update

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There has been significant damage up and down the state.  How much loss? We wont know the answer to that for weeks but we do know it hasn’t been ideal and therefore the crop will suffer. If any hard numbers on percent of crop come in I will post here but the market is reacting.  To date the market is up a minimum of 20-30  cents a pound across the spectrum of varieties.  Many expect even higher pricing to come.  Tucker Ag has pulled all almonds off the market for the time being.

FSMA EXEMPTIONS

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Please take some time to review this PowerPoint presentation of the Almond Boards Tim Birmingham.  It was shared with me by Brent Hankins of Hankins Farms.  This can work for any grower that is FSMA Certified or not.  Tucker Ag is making steps to assure the language in your contracts acknowledges that your product has yet to be processed in away that kills pathogens. This ensures your requirements to be exempt have been fulfilled and puts the responsibility on the processor to treat the product accordingly.  (which they have all been doing for years now)

 

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