To date the industry had been looking forward to the challenges of marketing a 2.5 – 2.6 billion pound crop. Today NASS of the USDA say they only only expect 2.2 billion pounds. The estimate release day is typically exciting. The day you find out whether the previous sales you had made were prudent or genius. Typically you might see a swing of 100 million pounds below or above the generally accepted number. (this year 2.5 – 2.6 billion pounds) So, a 2.4 billion pound estimate or a 2.7 billion pound estimate might have moved the market $.10 – $.15 either way over the next couple weeks. This current 2.2 billion pound estimate is not a immediate problem for growers. The estimate could be seen by California growers as good thing in the short term and if it holds true at harvest we could very possibly see a market rise of $.50. The bad news is….. Proven Correct, this estimate and a significantly higher price per pound would or could possibly cause a loss of demand from some of these new global buyers looking to use almonds as an ingredient. The industry obviously understands that with the mass plantings over the last few years we need all of the reliable demand we can find because we are now capable of producing so much more.
Attached are the official findings….