2019 Objective Crop Estimate

To date the industry had been looking forward to the challenges of marketing a 2.5 – 2.6 billion pound crop.  Today NASS of the USDA say they only only expect 2.2 billion pounds.  The estimate release day is typically exciting. The day you find out whether the previous sales you had made were prudent or genius.  Typically you might see a swing of 100 million pounds below or above the generally accepted number. (this year 2.5 – 2.6 billion pounds)  So,  a 2.4 billion pound estimate or a 2.7 billion pound estimate might have moved the market $.10 – $.15 either way over the next couple weeks.  This current 2.2 billion pound estimate is not a immediate problem for growers.  The estimate could be seen by California growers as good thing in the short term and if it holds true at harvest we could very possibly see a market rise of $.50.  The bad news is….. Proven Correct, this estimate and a significantly higher price per pound would or could possibly cause a loss of demand from some of these new global buyers looking to use almonds as an ingredient.    The industry obviously understands that with the mass plantings over the last few years we need all of the reliable demand we can find because we are now capable of producing so much more.

Attached are the official findings….

2019 objective estimate

Tariffs rise for Almonds in India

New Delhi has implemented a new higher tariff on our product.  This was done in response of the US Steel tariffs.  The new tariff level raises inshell cost to India about US $0.04 a pound while kernel cost into India have been raised a total of $0.13 a pound.  Obviously the government there sees the value of Inshell Product (unfinished) in a positive light as it provides employment opportunity for their people.  Sources in the industry don’t see these new tariffs on our products as a reason to lose any market share in India.

Current Pricing/Minturn October newsletter

 

Pricing has stabilized as of late.  The first three months of shipments were definitely below target but with a shorter than projected crop coming in we haven’t seen the kind of market drop we have seen in the past. Click the link below for current pricing out of Pearl Crop. Click the link below for market news and current crop position from Minturn Nut.

October 23 Pearl Crop

 

NewsLetter OCT 2018 Minturn

Harvest Pricing

It’s difficult to be certain on pricing at the current time.  The positive is that the growers and packers in the state seem to be holding the line and demanding higher prices.  The buyers are holding out knowing that sooner or later packers are going to have to make sales to feed growing/harvesting costs.  To date we are in a heavily unsold position as an industry.  The objective estimate released in July was 2.45 billion pounds for the 2018 crop.  Nonpareil variety was supposed to be off roughly 10% in 2018.  To date I’m seeing yields come in roughly 30% off in our area.  I don’t believe any of us expected this to be possible 1-2 mos ago.  Typically we would sit back and dream of huge price swings to come.  But can we realistically expect huge market swing in our favor?  I’d warn against it.  Considering our industry’s current undersold position coupled with the fact that 2019 will certainly bring another 50-60 thousand more acres into production I’m not sure how far we can push market prices north.  Certainly prices should rise but to expect $1.00 a pound more may be wishful thinking considering we have to continue to open up new markets globally to handle future supply and we all know in order to do this we need to keep our prices attractive.  Time will tell what the market will do but I seriously doubt huge gains. Lets hope the pollinators don’t disappoint as well.

Notice NPIS pricing…  currently it does not support the 15 cents we would like to see in order to make inshell profitable.  I’m sure the spread will change as it always does based on demand at certain times throughout the year.

Attached is the latest pricing update from Pearl Crop…

Pearl Aug Pricing

2018 Objective Forecast…..

2.45 billion pounds of production is expected from California this year.  This should be a market neutral estimate and hopefully give global buyers the confidence needed to start forward booking this crop.

The estimate states that by nuts per tree the Nonpareil crop is off 13.9% from 2017, but including all varieties the nut set is off merely .6%.

2018 pricing at time of estimate….

NP $2.70-$2.80

Mont/Car $2.20-$2.25

Cals $2.00-$2.10 very size dependent

 

CLICK LINK BELOW TO VIEW THE ACTUAL ESTIMATE….

2018 objective estimate

 

 

 

May Shipments

We’ve had nothing but good news in the Almond industry for months now and because of this we have seen a decent surge in Almond prices.  If I was writing this email a week ago I would be describing pricing on new crop approaching 2017 price levels.  Unfortunately things are ever changing right now. 

 

Yesterdays shipment report was not a record.  In fact it was in fact 12 million pounds below last year’s May shipments.  Domestic shipments were up 13% while exports were off 18%.  We have seen a shift with the tariffs in China and as well in Turkey.  China has taken the label of  “USA” off its Almond Tariff.  It was widely discussed that Australia would fill the void for the Chinese buyers and with Australia’s limited supply the California almond would fill the typical Australian almond buyers needs.  Therefore the net loss of business would be negligible. Turkey is a decent consumer of California almonds and also a large trading hub for the region. Now it seems they want to impose tariffs on the inshell (unfinished) almonds which is probably in response to current economic foreign policy moves from our own Govt.  Good or bad, time will tell.  Obviously we are hoping that the lower than expected commitments to ship (-24% from May ’17) are a sign that buyers need to get busy buying.

 

Saying this,  year to date marketing of the 2017 almond crop has been impressive.  Shipments for the year are over 10% ahead of last year. When you combine the 1.95 billion shipped to date with the 291 million committed shipments we have now sold more crop than we delivered, and therefore the projected carry out will diminish.

 

Current Pricing….(guessing today)

NP                         $2.80

CAR/Mont           $2.40

Cals                       $2.25

 

Please click the below links for market commentary from RPAC and Meridian

Meridian May 2018

RPAC May 2018

April Shipments

THE TRAIN KEEPS ROLLIN’

For the 7th month in a row and 7 out of our first 9 months of the marketing season we have broken an all time record for month vs. month of almond shipments. We have now shipped 12% more almonds to date than last year. Going forward the sold but not shipped is already 10% ahead of last year as well. see attached full report from the Almond Board.

 

position report 2018-04